Solar Panel Payback Calculator: your break-even year, by state

Enter your state, monthly electric bill, and roof details. We combine 2026 state electricity rates, peak sun hours, net-metering policies, and incentives to estimate your payback period and 25-year savings — degradation included.

50 states + DC data2026 rate estimatesBattery ROI toggleNo sign-up required
1. Locationstate & policy
2. Your billusage & rate
3. Roof & systemsize & cost
Check a recent bill, or average summer + winter.
Pre-filled with your state average (2026 est.) — edit if you know yours.
South/west-facing, unshaded sections. A typical two-car-garage roof plane is ~400 sq ft.
Auto-sized to offset ~100% of your usage. Edit to compare.
Pre-filled with your state average (2026 est., before incentives).
Apply the 30% federal tax credit?
The Section 25D residential credit expired for purchases after Dec 31, 2025. Check this only if you qualify under transition rules or expect a lease/PPA pass-through.
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Your estimated break-even
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Compare 3+ quotes — installer pricing varies by 20–40% for identical systems.

25-year cumulative savings

Includes 0.5%/yr panel degradation and utility rate inflation. The dashed line is your net system cost — where a savings line crosses it is your break-even.

🔋 Add a home battery (13.5 kWh)
Adds a separate ROI line. Batteries matter most where export rates are low.
Advanced assumptions

Incentive estimator (itemized, 2026 estimates)

    Estimated net system cost

    The verdict

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    Is solar worth it in your state?

    Every state guide uses the same live data as the calculator: 2026 average residential rate, peak sun hours, net-metering policy, and incentives.

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    How solar payback actually works in 2026

    Your solar payback period is the number of years it takes for cumulative electricity savings to equal what you paid for the system after incentives. Three numbers dominate the math, and all three vary enormously by state.

    1. Your electricity rate

    Solar savings are simply electricity you no longer buy. At Hawaii's ~43¢/kWh, every kilowatt-hour your panels produce is worth nearly four times as much as in Washington state (~12¢). That is why payback in New England and California can be under 8 years while hydro-rich Pacific Northwest homes often see 14+ years. Utility rates have also been rising roughly 2.5–4% per year nationally, which quietly accelerates payback — our chart models this compounding for you.

    2. Net metering policy

    When your panels produce more than you use, the export rate your utility pays determines how much that surplus is worth. Full retail net metering (Florida, New Mexico, most of the Northeast) credits exports at the same price you pay. Net-billing states (California NEM 3.0, Arizona, Utah, Indiana) pay 25–60% of retail — which is exactly why batteries pencil out there: storing your surplus and using it at night converts low-value exports back into full-retail savings.

    3. Incentives in the post-ITC era

    The 30% federal residential credit (Section 25D) ended for systems purchased after December 31, 2025. That reshuffled the map: state-level incentives now matter more than ever. New York still offers a 25% credit up to $5,000 plus NY-Sun rebates; South Carolina and Arizona have state credits; DC's SREC market pays panel owners hundreds of dollars per MWh; and many states exempt systems from sales and property tax. Leased and PPA systems may still capture commercial-side (48E) credits indirectly through lower contract prices — always have quotes itemize this.

    What a "good" payback looks like

    Under 8 years is excellent (you will roughly triple your money over the panels' 25-year warranty life). 8–12 years is solid and typical for most of the country. 12–18 years still beats many savings accounts but is sensitive to your assumptions. Beyond 18 years, solar is usually only worth it for backup power, electric-vehicle charging plans, or strong personal preference.

    How accurate is this calculator?
    We use state-average 2026 electricity rates, NREL-style peak-sun-hour values, a 22% system derate (inverter losses, wiring, soiling, temperature), 0.5%/yr panel degradation, and published net-metering structures. Your actual utility tariff, roof azimuth, and installer pricing will move the result — treat this as a well-informed estimate, then get itemized quotes.
    Is solar still worth it without the federal tax credit?
    Often yes — but the margin is thinner. Hardware prices fell ~40% over the last decade, and electricity rates keep climbing. In high-rate states (HI, CA, MA, CT, RI, NY) payback typically stays under 10 years even with zero federal credit. In low-rate, low-incentive states the math is tighter; comparing multiple installer quotes matters more than ever.
    Should I add a battery?
    If your state pays full retail for exports, a battery rarely improves pure ROI — you are buying backup power and outage protection. In net-billing states (California NEM 3.0 especially), a battery can shorten payback by converting ~25%-of-retail exports into 100%-of-retail self-consumption. Toggle the battery line in the chart above to see both cases for your inputs.
    How big a system do I need?
    We size to offset ~100% of your annual usage: yearly kWh ÷ (peak sun hours × 365 × 0.78 derate × your shading factor). A typical US home (≈10,600 kWh/yr) needs 6–9 kW depending on the state. Roof space is rarely the constraint — about 55 sq ft per kW with modern 430 W panels.
    Do solar panels really last 25 years?
    Most tier-1 panels carry a 25-year production warranty guaranteeing ~85–88% of original output at year 25. Our model degrades production 0.5% per year. Inverters are the usual mid-life replacement (years 12–15, roughly $1,500–2,500) — worth budgeting even though we keep the headline math conservative elsewhere.
    Where does the state data come from?
    Rates, sun hours, incentive summaries, and net-metering notes are authored estimates for 2026, modeled on EIA residential rate data, NREL solar-resource maps, and DSIRE incentive listings. They are refreshed manually and labeled as estimates — always confirm current programs with your utility and a tax professional before signing anything.
    Educational tool — not professional advice. SolarPayback provides general estimates for education only. It is not financial, tax, or investment advice, and incentive availability changes frequently. Consult a qualified tax professional and licensed installers before making decisions. All rates, costs, and incentive values shown are 2026 estimates.